As of November 30, 2024, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has raised concerns about Mongolia’s heightened risk of dzud—a harsh winter that endangers livestock and livelihoods. Current snow measurement data reveals accumulations of 11-22 cm in mountainous regions and 1-10 cm in certain areas of the Gobi and steppe. Based on risk assessments, approximately 30% of Mongolia’s territory faces a high risk of dzud, 20% is at moderate risk, 30% is at low risk, and 10% is at no risk.
Regions Most Affected
Several aimags are identified as particularly vulnerable:
- High and Very High Risk: Bayan-Ulgii, Uvs, Khovd, Gobi-Altai, and Bayankhongor.
- Moderate and High Risk: Portions of Zavkhan, Arkhangai, Uvurkhangai, Khuvsgul, and Sukhbaatar.
Deputy Prime Minister S. Amarsaikhan highlighted these concerns during a briefing on November 27, stating:
“While winter preparations nationwide are reported to be 87% complete, this does not eliminate risks. Dzud-related challenges can still arise due to fluctuating precipitation and adverse weather conditions.”
Dzud Risks and Preparedness
The aimags of Bayan-Ulgii, Uvs, Khovd, Zavkhan, Gobi-Altai, Bayankhongor, Umnugovi, and Dornogovi are already experiencing drought-like conditions, exacerbating dzud risks. Particularly, Arkhangai, Bayan-Ulgii, Zavkhan, Sukhbaatar, and Tuv aimags are classified as having a very high likelihood of facing dzud.
December and January are forecasted to be colder and drier than usual, intensifying the need for readiness. To combat these challenges, the government has initiated several measures:
- Task Forces: Five groups led by aimag officials are actively supporting herders, conducting on-ground assessments, and implementing dzud risk mitigation strategies in all 21 aimags and 330 soums.
- 24-Hour Headquarters: A Rapid Headquarters under the Unified Operational Center (UOC) is now operational, offering round-the-clock guidance to local communities.
- “New Cooperative” Initiative: Efforts are underway to strengthen herder cooperatives for better preparedness and resilience.
Moving Forward
Authorities are closely monitoring the situation and providing support to affected regions. Task forces are expected to intensify their efforts in the coming months, ensuring that communities are equipped to withstand the potentially devastating effects of dzud.
